Scenario Planning 


 Forecasting is predicting the outcome of a future event that has not been analyzed yet. Forecasting can be done in any science or social experiment—for instance, forecasts in economics, weather, education, and economics, etc. The forecast can also be qualitative or quantitative, depending on the scenario. Surveys or interviews are used to make qualitative forecasts, whereas quantitative forecasts are used for statistical analysis. However, with the frequent changes in the market due to globalization changes, it is hard to predict the future based on past or current trends based on facts. The traditional technique failed to incorporate such changes that are coming due to frequent market changes. 

 

When it comes to scenario planning, strategic planning helps the organization make a flexible future that addresses traditional forecasting issues.  Scenario planning is also called scenario thinking. KaufmanHall(2016) stated scenario planning is used in military planning.  Global(2008) described that scenario-planning differs from prediction techniques but a technique that incorporates various views that assist in managing risks and seizing market opportunities.

 

Traditional forecasting uses mathematical techniques or qualitative analysis to find the future results of a projected event. For instance, regression analysis and interviews. Whereas scenario planning uses matrix approaches with quadrants and other strategic planning techniques. Second, the expected outcome in traditional forecasting is more fixed and not expected to change; however, the outcomes in the scenario planning are flexible and can be adjusted depending on the uncertainties and risks associated with the planning(Amer, Daim, & Jetter,  2013). 

 

Moreover, traditional forecasts help find a direct or one dimension or a two-dimensional forecast value. Still, scenario planning helps find alternative solutions that can be characterized by 3D dimensions. The advantages of traditional forecasting are more of non-human involvement as it uses mathematical projections or qualitative research methods. However, scenario planning is less flexible in finding alternative solutions to adjust the projection results based on current environmental changes. Moreover, if the projection is based on historical data, it fails to incorporate current and future. However, the advantage of scenario planning is that we can adjust the projection results based on current changes in circumstances. 

 

References 

 

Amer, M., Daim, T.U., & Jetter, A. (2013). A review of scenario planning. Futures, 46, 23-40.

 

Global(2008). Introduction to scenario planning. Retrieved May 2, 2016 from

            https://www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/aV5eWFtX20080731094534.pdf

 

KaufmanHall (2016). Scenario planning. Retrieved May 2, 2016 from

        http://www.axiomepm.com/solutions/core/budgeting/scenario-planning?gclid=CjwKEAjw9Zu5BRCS_OuVibujhQ0SJAD7t4KrtylNeDnd_IB5syWMOeRBDl2QziIjc99IxeUyEQWyqRoCUt3w_wcB

 

 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Image
          Artificial Intelligence has been beneficial (AI) from primary school to a postgraduate level in so many ways. AI has been a trend in student guidance as well as in teacher competency enhancements. The benefits of AI for college students range from financial aid application to drop a course. On the other hand, the teachers in colleges and universities emulate human knowledge through AI and provide comprehensive training to students. AI helps higher education by analyzing student data and identifying failing, dropping, and health issues. Furthermore, personalized learning platforms help teachers in universities help students manage full or partial course content and provide their feedback on a subject(Elana, 2019).  AI helps students in managing everything from autonomous vehicles to game computing for computer science students. Moreover, the implementation of AI in higher education helps facilitate the learning and teaching process by increasing th...
Read more
  Hayashi, E. S., & Baranauskas, M. C. (2013). Affectability in educational technologies: A socio-technical perspective for design.  Journal of Educational Technology & Society, 16 (1), 57–68.   1.      A brief summary of the article   Hayashi and Baranauskas (2013) are three forms of learning. These forms are formal, informal, and non-formal learning. Formal education is when teaching is happening in schools. Informal learning is the opposite of formal learning that happens outside of a formal institution or school. Non-formal learning is the same as informal learning, but it has a formal learning quality. The paper focuses on how digital artifacts help students in non-formal studies. Using digital artifacts or technological advancements helps develop a better social system that better helps students understand the subject matter. The article starts with the definition of the social-technical plan of organizational development. ...
Read more
 Planning and Forecasting  Overview    Forecasting is nothing but predicting future outcomes based on what has been observed in the past or current reality. Predictions can range in multiple industries like healthcare, education, finance, etc. Unlike forecasting, prediction is estimating the value of an event based on unseen data. Both forecasting and prediction are regarding a future, even ranging from a long period( Garett, 2013). For this assignment, a narrative story of the Internet is used in this discussion.   A summary of an infamous story   The infamous story that is picked from the summary is the Internet. Though technological advancements brought the development and enhancement of the current Internet, the Internet’s first idea came into effect when Nikola Tesla toyed with a wireless system in the 1900s. Further enhancements and developments were made by critical thinkers Paul Otlet and Vannevar Bush, who conceived the storage system. ...
Read more